I’ve used phones with Microsoft operating systems for a long time. Tyla and I have used the Nokia Lumia Icons and HTC 8x phones. Tyla and I have used the HTC Touch, HTC Touch Pro 2, HTC Ozone and Motorola Q. The Q was my favorite of the bunch. I could type 30-40 words per minute on that tiny little keyboard. Before the phones, I had other PocketPC devices like the Jornada. I’ve developed apps for all of them and I have a bunch of apps currently in the Windows Phone store. To say I’m a fanboy is an understatement. Windows Phone is a fantastic operating system.
But.
We’re switching to Android. Our two year contracts are up this fall and we’re making the switch. It’s going to be painful and we’re going to have to relearn a lot of stuff about how to use our phones, but I think it’s worth it. It really feels like Microsoft is giving up on the high end Windows Phones. The Nokia Icon was a year or so old by the time we bought it and it’s still one of the best Windows Phone devices available. It seems like people are completely abandoning the high end Windows Phone market. It’s doing pretty well in third world countries. That’s great, but I want a high end phone.
And while it’s true that the top apps generally exist on Windows Phone too, sometimes they are unsupported third party versions of the apps or they come years after the other phones get the same app.
I hate that this happened, but I can’t ignore it any more. It’s time to pick a camp and Android is it. Why Android and not iOS? I don’t like Apple’s walled-garden mentality. I know it works great for a lot of users but I’m not one of them. Plus, Android is the market leader and for once it would be nice to be on the dominant platform.
So if you have a favorite Android phone, let me know. I feel like phone tech has slowed way down in the last year or two so I’m happy to save a little money and get last year’s model. I want a great camera, a ~5 inch screen, Android Pay, and a thumbprint reader would be a nice bonus. What do you suggest?
As I researched the possibility of ordering a new truck last year, I thought I’d save some money by skipping the Sync system. We have it on the Escape and, while it’s functional, it’s not WOW and for the extra cost, it should be at least 72% more wow. Then I heard that the 2016 F150s would be receiving the brand new Sync 3 system. It’s a complete overhaul and a break from the Microsoft system. The early reviews were very good so I went for it. So far, I’m glad I did. My main beef with Sync 2 is that it’s sluggish. Sync 3 is very responsive. I can pinch to zoom and get much faster reactions to touch selections.
The door to our garage has a spring in the hinge so it closes automatically. That’s generally handy but I’m waiting for it to smash Elijah’s hand. He has to hold onto the door frame to step down. So to help keep all his fingers attached, I pulled out some scrap wood and built a little hand hold for him. It was a one night project using an old broom stick as the round piece to grip and so far it’s working out really well.
This past weekend was the annual
Gun Violence Statistics
There’s a lot of gun violence in the news. I’m not going to get into the politics of it, but it did make me take a look at how bad things really are. Here’s the hypothesis that we’ll test: Gun violence is worse than it’s ever been before.
First, a couple caveats. As a data scientist, I know first hand that data can be beaten into submission to “prove” any hypothesis you want. It takes extra work to really let the data speak for itself and possibly disprove your hunches. And on a related note, it’s difficult to find good data sources. Articles are not reliable because they’re generally very doctored to get their intended point across. The bigger, more reliable studies that publish raw data don’t publish data every year.
The most reliable numbers I could find were from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Reports published in February 2016. Unfortunately the data in that report is from 2013, but it’s the most recent and trustworthy that I could find. That report states that in 2013, 11,208 of those were firearm homicides. That comes out to 3.5 people out of 100,000 or 0.0035% of the population. Other causes of death in the same range are aortic aneurysms, emphysema, multiple myeloma, stomach cancer and intestinal infections. Homicides by firearms accounted for 0.4% of the all deaths in 2013. By the way, do you want to know what the top three causes of death were?
My go-to comparison is always vehicle deaths. You’re 3.15 times more likely to die in a car accident than by a gun homicide. Do you worry 3.15 times more about the car accident than the gun homicide?
Those are all numbers from a single year. The original hypothesis was that we’re worse off than we were before so let’s look at some trend data. I spent a bunch of time doing searces in the http://wonder.cdc.gov system. It has data for 1999-2104. Here’s the summary I built for that data:
I had no idea that 45% of gun homicides were in the south! But back to the main point: those numbers don’t show much change. But hold on. They are slightly misleading because they are raw counts. The population grew significantly over that time range. We should be looking at the number of deaths per 100,000 people. That average has decreased:
We’re not finding much data to support our hypothesis, but what about pre-1999? I couldn’t find data in that CDC system pre-1999, but I did find this chart showing that we had a peak in the 90s that was much worse than today. This data comes from the Bureau of Justice Statistics via Wikipedia. Note that these numbers are a bit lower than the CDC numbers for the overlapping years. The CDC has their gun homicide deaths broken down into a number of categories (rifles, shotguns, pistols, terrorism, etc) and I’m guessing the Bureau of Justice Statistics has a slightly different categorization. However, I think it’s still valuable to look at the data:
I lived through that huge spike of gun homicides and had no idea that it existed.
I learned that you have to be really careful when comparing numbers because “gun deaths” can mean a lot of things. Some sites will include suicide by guns in their numbers. Suicide with guns are roughly twice as common as homicides with guns so they really change the numbers. Other articles will do their ratios and percentages based on people under 25. A large majority of the gun violence happens to and by people under 25. Some sites even include war related deaths in their gun numbers. And as you saw above, even reporting the raw totals can be used to trick people if you’re intentionally leaving out the fact that the population changed over that time range.
Do we have a problem? Yep. Would it be a horrifying event to witness? Yep. Should we analyze the data and run experiments to see how we could improve the problem? Yep. Is it worse than used to be? Nope.
P.S. Will any of this data stop people from yelling at other on TV? Nope.