Studio711.com – Ben Martens

As I bought my truck, I was left wondering why we still have dealerships. When I got ready to talk to the dealers, I already knew excatly how much my truck would cost them. I had the order form that showed invoice pricing and I knew how much profit they still made on that invoice price. Everything is available online these days. I was even able to track my own truck through the order process. I could see when it started to get built and when it was being shipped. With a couple more phone calls, I could have even figured out exactly which rail car it was on and tracked it’s movements across the country. There are no secrets anymore.

The old model of negotiating with a sales guy is silly. You don’t need to do any of that. Just tell them how much you want to pay and see if they’ll do it. So if I’m buying a car like that, why couldn’t I just log onto ford.com and order my vehicle there? Why is it any different than buying something from Amazon?

There’s still a place in my dream world for a few dealerships. They provide factory trained mechanics and maybe they could take deliver of the vehicle and prep it for your for a small fee. And maybe they let you pay a fee to test drive vehicles. But there’s no value to me in having them actually dictate the price and sell me the vehicle.

Tesla is trying a direct sales model, and, while I think it’s fantastic, the entrenched dealerships do not. They have wisely protected themselves with laws and Tesla is fighting an uphill battle to even be allowed to sell directly to customers. It’s painful and hard whenever a business model changes, but these dealership are becoming relics of history.

There’s a lot of gun violence in the news. I’m not going to get into the politics of it, but it did make me take a look at how bad things really are. Here’s the hypothesis that we’ll test: Gun violence is worse than it’s ever been before.

First, a couple caveats. As a data scientist, I know first hand that data can be beaten into submission to “prove” any hypothesis you want. It takes extra work to really let the data speak for itself and possibly disprove your hunches. And on a related note, it’s difficult to find good data sources. Articles are not reliable because they’re generally very doctored to get their intended point across. The bigger, more reliable studies that publish raw data don’t publish data every year.

The most reliable numbers I could find were from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Reports published in February 2016. Unfortunately the data in that report is from 2013, but it’s the most recent and trustworthy that I could find. That report states that in 2013, 11,208 of those were firearm homicides. That comes out to 3.5 people out of 100,000 or 0.0035% of the population. Other causes of death in the same range are aortic aneurysms, emphysema, multiple myeloma, stomach cancer and intestinal infections. Homicides by firearms accounted for 0.4% of the all deaths in 2013. By the way, do you want to know what the top three causes of death were?

1. Heart disease: 23.5%
2. Cancer: 22.5%
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 5.7%

My go-to comparison is always vehicle deaths. You’re 3.15 times more likely to die in a car accident than by a gun homicide. Do you worry 3.15 times more about the car accident than the gun homicide?

Those are all numbers from a single year. The original hypothesis was that we’re worse off than we were before so let’s look at some trend data. I spent a bunch of time doing searces in the http://wonder.cdc.gov system. It has data for 1999-2104. Here’s the summary I built for that data:

I had no idea that 45% of gun homicides were in the south! But back to the main point: those numbers don’t show much change. But hold on. They are slightly misleading because they are raw counts. The population grew significantly over that time range. We should be looking at the number of deaths per 100,000 people. That average has decreased:

We’re not finding much data to support our hypothesis, but what about pre-1999? I couldn’t find data in that CDC system pre-1999, but I did find this chart showing that we had a peak in the 90s that was much worse than today. This data comes from the Bureau of Justice Statistics via Wikipedia. Note that these numbers are a bit lower than the CDC numbers for the overlapping years. The CDC has their gun homicide deaths broken down into a number of categories (rifles, shotguns, pistols, terrorism, etc) and I’m guessing the Bureau of Justice Statistics has a slightly different categorization. However, I think it’s still valuable to look at the data:

I lived through that huge spike of gun homicides and had no idea that it existed.

I learned that you have to be really careful when comparing numbers because “gun deaths” can mean a lot of things. Some sites will include suicide by guns in their numbers. Suicide with guns are roughly twice as common as homicides with guns so they really change the numbers. Other articles will do their ratios and percentages based on people under 25. A large majority of the gun violence happens to and by people under 25. Some sites even include war related deaths in their gun numbers. And as you saw above, even reporting the raw totals can be used to trick people if you’re intentionally leaving out the fact that the population changed over that time range.

Do we have a problem? Yep. Would it be a horrifying event to witness? Yep. Should we analyze the data and run experiments to see how we could improve the problem? Yep. Is it worse than used to be? Nope.

P.S. Will any of this data stop people from yelling at other on TV? Nope.

Tired of hearing about the upcoming truck delivery? Too bad! Ha! I think about it a LOT so that’s what ends up coming out of my mouth and my fingers. Most of my thoughts are excitement and anticipation (current estimated delivery date is 6/28), but I’ve also been taking time to enjoy my Subaru. Here are some things I’ll miss about it:

• It’s so inexpensive and reliable! I only paid about $17K for it brand new and other than oil changes and standard service, I’ve only put about $4-5K into it. The cost per mile was phenomenally low.
• It’s a manual and I really enjoy driving manual transmissions. I drove an automatic for a couple years after getting my license but then I started a run of manuals: 1991 Ford Probe, 2002 Ford Mustang GT and this 2006 Subaru Impreza. That adds up to about 16 or 17 years of driving a stick.
• I’m pretty sure that the Subaru will be a lot better in the slippery conditions than the truck will be.
• The small size is very convenient for parking and driving in traffic. I’m sure that there will be plenty of annoying times trying to find a parking spot for the huge truck.
• Oddly enough, some types of wood purchases will be more difficult with the truck. For example, I can fit 20-30 8 foot 2x4s in the Subaru with the hatch and the windows closed. That means I can get wood even if it’s raining. With the truck those will have to go in the bed and they’ll hang out over the tailgate. Obviously there are plenty of other hauling situations which are way easier with a truck, but the Subie was no slouch.

And I guess the final one isn’t specific to the Subaru and the truck, but it’s kind of relaxing to drive a car that’s already dinged up. Those first few scratches in a new vehicle can be extra annoying.

So yes, I’m going to be thrilled when I swap keys for the truck, but this Subaru has been an excellent vehicle for me.

This past weekend was the annual beer festival at Marymoor. Last year I went with Don and Logan. This year Don was out of town, but Logan went again and Luke and Tim came too. It was a pretty wet day but somehow it didn’t rain while we were there.

There were 111 breweries there and most breweries had four or five different beers on tap. You get a 5 oz glass and 10 tokens. I definitely didn’t hit a home run with every beer, but it’s a fun way to try beers that you might not normally buy.

A huge thanks to the ladies for watching the kids while we enjoyed ourselves. I love this event!

I’ve been happily watching my house value skyrocket since we bought it. In less than 5 years, Zillow says we’re up 44%! I say “happily” because it’s nice to see that I bought in a trough instead of at a peak like last time, but since I have no plans to move for quite a while, all it really does is raise my property taxes.

The market is crazy though. It feels like we have to be heading toward another bubble pop. I don’t see how it’s possible to sustain growth like this. I have a couple friends at work looking for houses. This is their routine:

• Thursday: Browse online to see all the new houses that come online.
• Weekend: Go to an open house and make an offer.
• Monday: Hear if you won or not.

You probably didn’t get the house. It’s not uncommon to have 10 offers on the house and the top one probably waved the inspection, paid $20-100K over asking price, and might even be paying cash. Yikes.

On Tuesday, my Facebook and Instagram feeds lit up with pictures of a “flat rainbow” in the area. It turns out that this was a “circumhorizontal arc”. Cliff Mass has a good blog post explaining it. “The sun’s light was refracted (bent) by ice crystals in the thin upper clouds”. Wikipedia describes it like this: “The complete halo is a huge, multi-coloured band running parallel to the horizon with its centre beneath the sun” I’ll let you read those two linked articles if you want to learn more about the science, but for now, enjoy this beautiful flat rainbow over Stevens Pass.