Studio711.com – Ben Martens

Commentary

Safeway Monopoly

safewaymonopolyFor the last couple months, I’ve been playing the Monopoly game at our local grocery store. When you buy items, you get game pieces and if you collect all the pieces in a specific set then you get the associated prize. I know it’s ridiculous to play but it was something to do during the times that I was watching Elijah but he was content to play by himself.

The most I ever won was a free DVD rental from Red Box (not even a BluRay) and a free jar of pickles. Yay. Totally worth my time.

I’d love to know exactly how much they actually pay out. They say they are giving away a hundred of million dollars, but there are so many sneaky ways that they don’t actually end up paying.

  • Many of the game pieces include $0.25 coupons for specific products. I imagine that most people, like me, immediately toss those.
  • It’s a lot of work to keep track of everything. You have to stay on top of it to have any hope of winning so that weeds out a huge number of people. I bet a lot of gamepieces get lost or just thrown away when they are taken home.
  • If you do keep up with it, you pretty quickly figure out that there are some game pieces that are common and one from every set that is impossible to get.
  • If you assume that a decent percentage of people who get the tickets don’t actually end up following through with analyzing them all, then it follows that the rare pieces that you need to win are ending up in the trash somewhere.
  • The game is spread across the country and across many grocery chains.

I knew all this going in, but I still played.

When it finally ended, I looked up the odds. I should have done it from the beginning. Here are some of the interesting stats:

  • Each set does indeed have a rare piece, but there is also a semi-rare piece. The odds of getting the semi-rare piece are 1 in 5000. So if you get to the point where you only need one more, you’re doing pretty good.
  • Free Redbox rentals are the easiest to get. The odds of finding the rare piece for that prize are 1 in 1620.
  • If you take out the little instant winner prizes (like Redbox) and the prizes that just gives you two more game tickets, then your odds of finding ANY rare game pieces are 1 in 4157.
  • Lots of the game tickets include a code that you can enter online for another chance to win. All I ever won there was more of the free ticket coupons. If you take out those, the odds of winning anything online are 1 in 80,598.

It’s relatively easy to collect all the non-rare pieces. The whole game really boils down to just finding those rare pieces. I’m guessing that I probably acquired around 400-500 game pieces over the course of the game. So even with all that work, my odds of winning anything were tiny. Put all those numbers together and I had about a 10% chance of winning anything worth more than $10. Bump it up to a prize worth more than $100 and my odds fell to less than a percent. That’s not a very good return on my time investment.

benmartens May 11, 2016 Commentary

100 Years

stpaulsodus100My parents attend St. Paul Lutheran Church in Sodus, MI. That church just celebrated it’s 100th anniversary! It’s an impressive milestone for any organization. She said that 293 people showed up for the service! They had extra chairs all over the place and people were in overflow rooms too. The image in this post is one that she snapped from the balcony during the service. The area paper also has a writeup that includes older pictures of the church.

It got me thinking about my current church. That church started in 1959 so if I’m still around for the 100th anniversary, I’ll be 79 years old!

benmartens May 10, 2016 Commentary

No Complaining

nocomplainingStarting yesterday and lasting for two weeks, I’m not going to complain. I’ve noticed that I do a lot of complaining and it coincided with hearing a couple different people talking about doing this challenge. It’s kind of like Whole 30 but I can still eat tater tots and it’s 14 days instead of 30 days.

“They” say it takes two weeks to form a new habit so hopefully I’ll form a new habit of changing my gut reaction to various situations. It’s good to see opportunities for improvement and think of ways that you can change your environment for the better, but whining and complaining has no positive impact and just slows down the improvement process.

This has already been very difficult! If you notice me complaining, especially in the next two weeks, feel free to kick me in the shin.

benmartens May 6, 2016 Commentary

Amazon Prime Video Monthly

amazonprimeAmazon has always offered Prime as a one year plan. It’s $99 and you get free two day shipping along with access to a selection of free Kindle books, streaming videos, music, unlimited photo storage and a bunch of other smaller benefits. It’s a fantastic deal and they’ve had me hooked for many years. They will still continue to offer this but they’re adding two new plans:

  1. Amazon Prime Video is now available for $8.99/month. This is obviously in direct competition with Netflix. It’s a good move because it allows them to expand globally even when the rest of the more complicated offerings like 2 day shipping are not available. I don’t think the Amazon Prime catalog is as good as the Netflix one, but since I would pay for Prime just to have the shipping option, the video stuff is just gravy on top and there’s plenty there to keep me occupied.
  2. The full Amazon Prime is available for $10.99/month. If you aren’t sure that the service is right for you or maybe you only want to use it in December for ordering gifts, then you have the option of paying monthly.

If you keep either one for a full year, you’re going to end up paying more than if you had prepaid for a year, but it’s nice that these options exist to expand their customer base.

benmartens April 25, 2016 Commentary

Tesla Model 3

teslamodel3Over 325,000 people lined up to put $1000 down on the new Tesla 3. It’s an incredible accomplishment for Tesla considering that many people lined up without even knowing what the car looked like. Tesla could be the next Apple in terms of producing stuff that people blindly want. They’ve built an incredibly good reputation.

The concern is whether or not Tesla can deliver. It seems like Elon Musk’s plan from the beginning was to learn about electric cars with the early expensive models. Now we’re seeing the full gamble play out. This is make or break time for the company. Tesla can currently make about 50,000 cars per year so at that rate, it will take them six years to fill the orders and they aren’t even going to start shipping them until late 2017. With that many orders lined up, Tesla can go to investors and request a lot of money to build out even more factories so they should be able to ramp up production.

That’s a huge number of electric vehicles. Estimates put the total number of electric cars in the US around 410,000. Tesla sold about 63,000 of those. It’s pretty easy for people to back out of their orders and get their $1000 back, but if even half of the people buy the car, it’s a very sizeable percentage of the total market.

They’ll have to really bring down their production costs too. Car companies generally include research and development costs in the cost of their car. That’s how the companies can stay afloat. Tesla does NOT include R&D in the cost of their cars and even then they aren’t making much money on each one sold. It may be a viable business strategy in the beginning but at some point they have to turn the corner and really be a profitable company.

I hope they succeed and given all of the amazing things Elon Musk has accomplished, it’s hard to bet against them. That being said, this is a huge undertaking. It will be fun to watch!

benmartens April 22, 2016 Commentary

Truck Update

fordfactoryBack in January I ordered an F150. It’s now more than four months later and a common question is “Where’s your truck?” The short answer is that I’m still waiting. I ordered the heavy duty payload option and that requires some special parts that were flagged in the ordering system as “late availability.” I knew this going in and I was prepared to wait, but ugh, it’s hard to wait so long. I’m praying that any day now I’ll hear from the dealer that the build has started. At that point I think it takes about 10 weeks to get the truck.

So I still have a long wait ahead of me. I know that down the road I’ll be happy that I waited for this feature, but right now, I question when it is worth it. One positive is that the longer I wait, the cheaper the truck gets. Incentives from the factory increase as the model year goes on and I get whatever incentives are available when the truck arrives. Also, Tyla and I have been making “truck payments” to ourselves for a while so this wait just means we have a smaller amount left to finance.

I eagerly await the day when I can post a picture of myself standing next to my truck!

benmartens April 20, 2016 Commentary

Instagram

instagramlogoI joined Instagram quite a while ago mainly because it was an easy way to post both to my website and to Facebook, but the more I use it, the more I love it. You can only post pictures and videos so the content is very engaging. And I also find that the userbase is a lot more interactive than on Facebook or Twitter. When I tag posts with various hashtags, it’s very common to get some random person liking the picture or even following me if I post a few in a row that they like. I’ve been on Twitter for years and that almost never happens there. I’ve even started posting some stuff just to Instagram instead of posting to Facebook at the sametime.

I know Instagram is a very popular service, but if you haven’t signed up, give it a shot. You can see the full list of people I’m following, but to wrap this up, I’ll share a couple of my favorites:

  • spacex
  • calvarylutheranwa
  • cascadeloop
  • northwesthiker
  • mattcremona
  • smartereveryday
  • steveinmarin
  • iliketomakestuff
  • jaybates86
  • crystalmountain
benmartens March 30, 2016 Commentary

Toll-Free Times On 405

opentoallhotlanesLast week, WSDOT changed the tolling procedure on 405. The HOT lanes are now open to everyone between 7pm and 5am and on weekends. You don’t need a pass, you don’t need multiple passengers, and you don’t have to pay money. I love this change, but I’m surprised they did it.

If you read the notes from the meeting where they decided this, it’s clear that they have a lot of data available. Some of those charts are incredibly interesting. If you’re a data nerd who travels 405, you’ll love it. But the main problem I have, as I’ve stated before, is that they aren’t optimizing just for maximum throughput on the road. You can see it in their notes. They always talk about how much money each of the options will cost them in lost revenue. The system is in place to generate money and give rich people a fast lane. I’m fundamentally opposed to that. The highway is a shared resource. Let’s maximize throughput. End of story.

So why am I surprised that they created a toll-free time? Because people are going to start realizing that the toll isn’t the part of the system that is important. The important part is having separate lanes with limited entry and exit points, just like a standard express lane setup. There are already calls for WSDOT to experiment with no-toll times during the day instead of just at night, but I can’t imagine them doing that. They’d be giving up a lot of money and that’s a higher priority for them than just improving throughput. Making it free at night and on weekends costs them 3% of their total revenue and removes traffic jams that the HOT system added on the weekends so it’s a nice PR win and actually does improve traffic. Changing the daytime rates would be a much bigger hit to their bottom line.

benmartens March 28, 2016 Commentary

Movies At Home

seanparkerOnline streaming has gotten a lot better and movies are available in just a few months after they are released in theaters. But wouldn’t it be cool to watch movies at home as soon as they show up in the theater? There have been some VERY expensive devices (tens of thousands of dollars) that allow rich people to do this, but Sean Parker (of Napster fame) is trying to change that.

He has a new product and service called “Screening Room.” You pay $150 for a set top device and then you can watch movies for $50 each. Sure, it’s a lot more expensive than waiting until it’s available for rental later (or even later when it’s on Netflix and Amazon), but if you want to watch a current movie, you’re easily going to spend $50 at the theater with two or three people.

This could easily be a cost savings if you see a lot of movies with your friends or family. While I’m interested in that part, I love the idea that I can finally watch current movies without the hassle of trying to find time to go see it with a toddler in the mix.

It seems too good to be true which means that it probably won’t ever happen. I don’t love going to theaters so if this actually happens, it could be something that I would pick up.

benmartens March 25, 2016 Commentary

Holy Week

holy-weekContinuing in the “What do all those church holidays mean?” series, we’re now in Holy Week. It’s a big week for Christians. It started last Sunday with Palm Sunday. This is the day when Jesus rode into Jerusalem on a donkey and was greeted by lots of people waving palm branches to celebrate his arrival. He knew full well what was going to happen to him later in the week, but he came anyway. The people were celebrating him as their king and Jesus cried because they still didn’t get it. He wasn’t their eathly king. He was there to save them from their sins for eternity! Some of those same people would be in the crowd later in the week shouting for him to be crucified.

Four days later, we celebrate Maundy Thursday. On this day, Jesus ate the “Last Supper” with his disciples. You’ve probably seen the famous painting depicting this scene. At this meal, Jesus gave us the sacrament of communion. We still partake in communion regularly throughout the church year. We receive his body and blood along with the bread and the wine to give us forgiveness and strengthen our faith.

The next day is Good Friday. This church service is usually very somber. This is the day we remember Jesus’s death on the cross. He was abandoned by his disciples and the crowds that he had preached to were now shouting “Crucify him!” He was executed in one of the most gruesome manners that humankind has ever developed, and it all happened because you and I sinned. The Bible says that the wages of sin is death, so God sent his only Son to die in our place to pay for our sins.

Thankfully, that’s not the end of the story. On Easter Sunday, various people went to the tomb and found that he was not there. He had risen! His death marks his victory over death and the devil. Because He died and rose again, we can live with Him forever in heaven.

It’s an incredible roller coaster of emotions for the Christian, but it’s a fantastic annual reminder about how seriously God takes sin. God demands perfection and even one single sin is enough to send someone to hell for eternity. We’re all hopeless, but Jesus took our place, bore the weight of the entire world’s sin and died for us. But because he was not only true God but also true man, he had the power to rise from the dead. God demands perfection but he also showed us mercy by sending Jesus to pay for our sins. Nothing we can do can ever pay that price, but if we believe that Jesus died for us, we will spend eternity with Him in heaven.

benmartens March 24, 2016 Commentary